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A new approach to unit root tests in univariate time series robust to structural changes.

机译:单变量时间序列中的单位根测试的新方法对结构变化具有鲁棒性。

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摘要

Using methodology in panel unit root tests we propose a new approach to univariate unit root tests. Our method leads to an asymptotically normal distribution of the least squares estimator and is robust to contaminated data having structural changes or outliers while the power of the test does not drastically worsen. The main idea is that under the assumption that the process has a unit root we transform an AR(1) process {lcub}yt : 1 ≤ t ≤ T{rcub} to a double-index process {lcub}yij : 1 ≤ i ≤ m, 1 ≤ j ≤ n, mn = T{rcub} in such a way that the segments are independent for i = 1, 2,···,m. For this transformed data, we apply the same sequential limit as in Levin and Lin (1992, 2002). First, as n → infinity we obtain asymptotic results for each i. These have the same form as in conventional univariate unit root tests. Second, as m → infinity we obtain an asymptotically normal distribution for the OLS estimator by the Lindeberg-Feller CLT. An advantage of this technique is that an undetected break has a relatively minor effect which, in fact, disappears as m increases. We also show that for a general ARMA (p,q) model we still obtain the asymptotic normality of the unit root statistics under the sequential limit assumption.
机译:使用面板单位根测试中的方法,我们提出了一种用于单变量单位根测试的新方法。我们的方法导致最小二乘估计量的渐近正态分布,并且对于受污染的具有结构变化或异常值的数据具有鲁棒性,而测试的功效并未急剧恶化。主要思想是,在假设过程具有单位根的情况下,我们将AR(1)过程{lcub} yt:1≤t≤T {rcub}转换为双索引过程{lcub} yij:1≤i ≤m,1≤j≤n,mn = T {rcub},这样的方式使得各段对于i = 1、2,...,m是独立的。对于此转换后的数据,我们应用与Levin和Lin(1992,2002)中相同的顺序限制。首先,当n→无穷大时,我们获得每个i的渐近结果。这些具有与常规单变量单位根检验相同的形式。其次,当m→无穷大时,我们通过Lindeberg-Feller CLT获得OLS估计量的渐近正态分布。该技术的一个优点是,未检测到的中断具有相对较小的影响,实际上,随着m的增加而消失。我们还表明,对于一般的ARMA(p,q)模型,我们仍然可以在顺序极限假设下获得单位根统计量的渐近正态性。

著录项

  • 作者

    Kim, Seong-Tae.;

  • 作者单位

    North Carolina State University.;

  • 授予单位 North Carolina State University.;
  • 学科 Statistics.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2007
  • 页码 182 p.
  • 总页数 182
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 统计学;
  • 关键词

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