Financial Sector Development, Financialization and Economic Development in the USA

摘要

This study re-examined the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth in the USA during the period 1961–2012 by considering financialization within an ARDL-Bounds testing approach.We employed two indicators of financial development and one financialization index after using principal component analysis (PCA).We applied Granger causality tests using the ARDL-ECM methodology and Toda-Yamamoto approach.The results are sensitive to financial sector indicators and Granger causality method.However,robust results strongly support:
　　1)In the long-run points of view,“Demand-Following”relationship between two economic growth sources (EFF，GK) and FD along with Lucas‘s view between GY and FD;
　　2)In the short-run points of view，there are significant positive causality from EFF to FD,from FIN to FD (if GY is used in the model) and finally from EFF to FIN;
　　3)Strong relationship between EFF and FD irrespective to including FIN in the models is found;
　　4)Adding FIN term in the models decreased the power of a negative relationship between FD and GY.Finally，the study suggests for the future researches，reconsidering of mainstream view to financial sector from ―functional perspective to―functional perspective with keeping originality for the real sector through defining and measuring more dimensions of financial sector activities account for the change of service relationship between thefinancial sector and real sector as well as strengthening of the financial sector development indicator by including the role of other parts of financial sector，such as financial derivative markets.

目录

声明

致谢

CHAPTER ONE:INTRODUCTION

1.1 Overview

1.2 Methodology and Hypotheses

1.3 Main Findings

1.4 Contribution and Limitation

1.5 Organization of the Study

CHAPTER TWO:LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1Finance-Growth Relationship

2.2 Finance-Growth relationship:Empirical Evidence

2.3 Financialization

CHAPTER THREE:DATA and ECONOMETRICS METHODOLOGY

3.1 Measurement and Data Sources

3.2 Methodology and Model Specification

CHAPTER FOUR:EMPIRICAL RESULTS

4.1 Unit Root Test

4.2 Cointegration Test

4.3Estimation of Long-Run Coefficients

4.4Granger Non-Causality Analysis

CHAPTER FIVE:CONCLUSION

Appendix A

Appendix B

参考文献