声明
Chapter 1. Introduction
1.1 Research Background
1.2 Objectives of the Study
1.3 Contributions of the Study
1.4 Scopes of the Study
1.5 Research Structure
Chapter 2. Literature Review
2.1 Theoretical Background on Exchange Rate Determination
2.1.1. Balance of Payments Approach
2.1.2 Purchasing Power Parity Approach
2.1.3 Monetary Approach
2.1.4 Expectation Approach
2.1.5 Exchange Rate Prediction Technique
2.2 Preceding Researches on the Relationship between Exchange Rates and Macro-Economic Variables
2.3 Research Gaps and Derived Research Questions
2.4 Chapter Summary
Chapter 3. Overview of Exchange Rate Policy and Foreign Exchange Management System
3.1 Exchange Rate Policy
3.2 Foreign Exchange Management System in Korea and China
3.2.1 Foreign Exchange Management System
3.2.2 Foreign Exchange Management System in Korea
3.2.3 Foreign Exchange Management System in China
3.3 Exchange Rate System in Korea and China
3.3.1 Types of Exchange Rate System
3.3.2 Exchange Rate System in Korea
3.3.3 Exchange Rate System in China
3.3.4 Comparison of Exchange Rate System between Korea and China
3.3.5 Trends of KRW and CNY Exchange Rates
3.4 Chapter Summary
Chapter 4. Relationship between Exchange Rates and Major Macro-Economic Variables
4.1 Exchange Rates and Prices
4.2 Exchange Rates and Exports
4.3 Exchange Rates and Imports
4.4 Exchange Rates and Trade Balances
4.5 Exchange Rates and Base Rates
4.6 Exchange Rates and Stock Price
4.7 Exchange Rates and Money Supply
4.8 Exchange Rates and Gross Domestic Product
4.9 Chapter Summary
Chapter 5. Research Methodology and Method
5.1 Research Design
5.2 Establishing Hypothesis
5.2.1 Exchange Rates and Exports
5.2.2 Exchange Rates and Imports
5.2.3 Exchange Rates and Trade Balances
5.2.4 Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange Reserves
5.2.5 Exchange Rates and GDP
5.2.6 Exchange Rates and Money Supply
5.2.7 Exchange Rates and Interest Rates
5. 2. 8 Exchange Rates and Price Level
5.2.9 Exchange Rates and Stock Prices
5.3 Data Sources
5.4 Variable Selection
5.5 Diagnostic Checking
5.5.1 Unit Root Test
5.5.2 Cointegration Test
5.5.3 Granger Causality Test
5.5.4 Impact Response Analysis
5.5.5 Variance Decomposition Analysis
5.5.6 Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR)
5.5.7 Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)
5.6 Chapter Summary
Chapter 6. Empirical Analysis and Results
6.1 Basic Descriptive Statistics
6.1.1 Basic Descriptive Statistics of Korea
6.1.2 Basic Descriptive Statistics of China
6.2 Stability Assessment of Data
6.2.1 Unit Root Test
6.2.2 Cointegration Test
6.3 Empirical Analysis of Data
6.3.1 Granger Causality Test
6.3.2 Vector Error Correction Estimates
6.3.3 Impulse Response Analysis
6.3.4 Variance Decomposition Analysis
6.3.5 Comprehensive Comparison of Test Results
Chapter 7. Conclusion and Recommendations
7.1 Summary of the Research
7.2 Policy Implications
7.2.1 Enhancement of Reliability through Stable Operation of Exchange Rate Policy
7.2.2 Policy Management of Macro-Economic Variables
7.3 Limitations and Further Studies
参考文献
致谢
Author’s Curriculum Vitae
对外经济贸易大学;
