Impact of Agricultural Export on Economic Growth in Madagascar:case of Vanilla,Coffee and Cloves

摘要

Agricultural export is a process to trade agricultural products in international markets,it is a paramount importance to economic growth in Madagascar but there are certain problems at the level of production and the producers.
　　This study investigates the relationships between agricultural products (vanilla,coffee, cloves) export and economic growth in Madagascar.An econometric model based on generalized Cobb Douglas production function has been developed in order to determine the direction of causality in both, short and long run.The annual time series
　　used for the estimation covers the time period 1985-2012.All variables were non stationary and of an order of I(1) so Johnsen co-integration test was conducted for long
　　run equilibrium.To characterize the long-run dynamics we will use Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and to check for the sense of causality, Granger Causality test was done.After all tests, we obtain our results, vanilla export, coffee export and cloves export have a positive and significant impact to economic growth in Madagascar.
　　At the end of this study, we'll provide some recommendations to those areas to have a better competitiveness with others countries producing the same agricultural products and to have a high benefit on agricultural export.

目录

声明

ABSTRACT

TABLE OF CONTENTS

LIST OF FIGURES

LIST OF TABLES

ABBREVIATION

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION

1．1 Background

1．2 Define the terms and scope of the study

1．2．1 Definition of the terms

1．2．2 Scope of the Study

1．3 Significance of the Study

1．4 Problem Statement

1．5 Research Questions and Hypotheses

1．5．1 Research Questions

1．5．2 Hypotheses

1．6 Research Design

1．7 Limitations

1．8 Our contributions

1．9 Thesis structure

CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW

2．1 Literature review on agricultural and Exports in Africa

2．1．1 Literature review on agricultural

2．1．2 Literature review on exports

2．2 Literature review on economic growth

2．3 Literature review on exports and economic growth

CHAPTER 3 DATA AND METHODOLOGY

3．1 Nature and meaning of Data

3．1．1 Nature of Data

3．1．2 Source of Data

3．1．3 Meaning of the Data

3．2 Model Specification

CHAPTER 4 EMPIRICAL RESULTS

4．1 Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root results

4．2 Data Trend and Cointegration Analysis

4．2．1 Lag Selection

4．2．2 Johansen Co-integration test results

4．2．3 Vector Error Correction Model output

4．2．4 Granger Causality output

CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSIoN AND RECOMMENDATIONS

5．1 Conclusion

5．2 Recommenaations

5．3 Suggestions

REFERENCES

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS