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Effects of the Global Financial Crisis on Capital Markets: A Case Study of the Nairobi Stock Exchange (NSE)

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目录

声明

Acknowledgment

Abstract

摘要

Abbreviations List

List of Tables and Figures

List of Figures

Table of Contents

CHAPTER 1:INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background,Objective and Significance of the Research

1.1.1 Overview of the Nairobi Stock Exchange

1.1.2 Objeetive of the Research

1.1.3 Significance of the Research

1.2 Methodology and Content of Research

1.2.1 Research Purpose

1.2.2 Research Design

1.2.3 Collection of Data

1.2.4 Sample Data

1.2.5 Research Questions

1.2.6 Data analysis procedure

1.3 Research Content

CHAPTER 2:BASIC THEORIES AND CONCEPTS

2.1 Literature Review

2.1.1 The meaning and origin of the Global Financial Crisis

2.1.2 Review of literature

2.2 Causes of the Crisis

2.3 Effects of the crisis on Kenya

2.3.1 The crisis on Kenya’s banking system

2.3.2 The crisis on Foreign Direct Investment(FDI)

2.4 The Effect of the crisis on the Kenyan capital market

2.5 Policy Measures adopted by different economies

2.5.1 Maeroeconomic policies to manage the impact of the crisis

2.5.2 Social Policies to respond to the impact of the crisis

CHAPTER 3:THE SCOPE OF THE CAPITAL MARKET

3.1 Capital Market

3.2 Stock market

3.2.1 The Role of the Stock Market

3.2.2 Stock Market Performance Indicators

3.2.3 Challenges of Developing Stock Markets in Africa

3.3 Capital market development in Kenya

3.3.1 Kenyan Stock Market

3.3.2 Kenyan Bonds Market

3.3.3 Kenyan Investment Funds

3.4 Members and Participants in the Kenyan Capital Market

3.4.1 The Capital Markets Authority

3.4.2 Other Participants

3.4.3 Role of the Capital Markets Authority

3.5 The Nairobi Stock Exchange(NSE)

3.5.1 History and Development of the Nairobi Stock Exchange

3.5.2 Structure and Organization of NSE

3.5.3 Nairobi Stock Exchange segments

3.5.4 Functions of the Nairobi Stock Exchange

3.5.5 Challenges facing the NSE

3.5.6 Challenges facing the CMA

3.6 Risk Management

3.6.1 What is risk?

3.6.2 What is risk management?

3.6.3 Why should we bother with risk management?

3.6.4 Risk management systems

3.6.5 Avoiding and minimizing risk

CHAPTER 4:ANALYSIS OF THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS ON THE NAIROBI STOCK EXCHANGE

4.1 Data Sources

4.2 Research Variables

4.3 Descriptive statistics for the variables

4.4 Review of the key variables

4.4.1 Market Capitalization

4.4.2 Equity Turnover

4.4.3 Dmestic debt

4.4.4 Gross Domestic Product

4.5 Empirical Model

4.6 Correlations

4.7 Multiple Regression analysis

4.8 Analysis Results

CHAPTER 5:CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

5.1 Conclusions

5.2 Discussions on the way forward

5.3 Limitations of the Research

5.4 Recommendations

5.4.1 Strengthen Crisis-preparedness

5.4.2 Improve reporting,accounting and disclosure practices in the NSE

5.4.3 Ensure corporate governance

5.4.4 Enhance financial sovereign and corporate bonds markets

5.4.5 Improving access to financial support

5.4.6 Develop risk management solutions

5.4.7 Recognition and Enhancement of NSE

5.4.8 Enhance Macro-Economic and Political Stability

5.4.9 Lessons to Investors

References

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摘要

内罗毕证券交易所(NairobiStockExchange,以下简称NSE)按照其交易量为非洲第四大证券交易所,而就市场资本化所占GDP百分比而言,则为非洲第五大证券交易所。该交易所与乌干达证券交易所(UgandaSecuritiesExchange)和达累斯萨拉姆证券交易所(DarEsSalaamStockExchange)建立了合作关系,其中包括各种股票的相互交叉上市。NSE自建立以来一直在不断发展壮大,希望赢得市场地位的企业可将NSE作为调用投资资源的途径和获取资本的备选方案。由于成立较早,NSE已成功发展为中东非地区最杰出的股票交易所之一。许多肯尼亚本土和国外的投资者都纷纷利用这一便利,捕获投资机遇。
   但是,金融危机给非洲各国带来了重大挑战,它也充分暴露出了全球经济尤其是非洲经济效力的脆弱性。金融危机的爆发,对于正处于努力发展经济效益和提高管理的非洲来说,影响非常深远,造成的危害也非常严重。本课题在利用国际比较的基础上,探讨了金融危机对肯尼亚资本市场带来的影响。采用定性与定量相结合的方法,分析了肯尼亚经济发展与股票市场之间的内在关联关系。如因危机而产生的经济效益低下使得GDP明显下降、通货膨胀明显上涨,且汇率也明显下调,这一切又对当地的家庭产生消极影响,使得税后所得降低。人们没有了可支配的资金,便从股票市场撤出资金,从而又导致了股票市场的效益低下。国外投资者纷纷售出自己的股份,并转向购买更加安全的国债进行投资,这便造成国外的股份抛售超出买入。2009年,NSE20股指下跌几近30%,甚至将前几年的收益用于抵补。由于经营不善和严重的股票盗卖行为,使得部分证券公司倒闭,投资者们失去信心,纷纷选择惊恐性抛售,后果便是股价的大幅下跌。
   因此,本课题深入分析全球金融危机对NSE产生的深远影响以及NSE面临的挑战。论文研究了国内生产总值(GDP)、股票成交金额和央行内债三者之间的内在关系,而这三者进而又可影响经济的进一步增长、股票市场波动和国内浮动利率变化。通过实证研究得到了一些有意义的研究结论。这些建议有利于肯尼亚证券市场的发展,进而促进经济的繁荣。如加强证券市场的监管,提高会计报表的质量,加强信息披露的真实性,确保公司治理水平的提高,完善国家基础设施的建设,对肯尼亚经济的发展起到促进作用。

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