The Impact of the Saudi Oil Exports On the Saudi Economy:An Empirical Analysis

摘要

There are certain concerns that Saudi Arabia economy is directly association to its oil exports globally.This because each day the country produces an approximate 9 million barrels of crude oil which makes a major driver of the energy market and the global economy.Historically, Saudi Arabia has exported oil since 1939 with increasing output and capacity as well as infrastructure developments leading to the country being considered the leading oil production nation globally.The quantitative relationship between oil exports and the Saudi Arabia economy varies and therefore it is important to quantitatively evaluate the statistical relationship between these variables in order determine the economic implications of variations in oil exports.In this thesis, a quantitative study that identifies the effect of oil export on the Saudi economy using statistical models that aim to evaluate the impact of oil trade on the GDP.It employs pertinent statistical tools and time series analysis in the evaluation of the dynamic correlation between oil exports and macroeconomic variables in Saudi Arabia based on Cobb-Douglas model.The results reveal that oil exports have a significant impact on the GDP since according to the findings the Saudi GDP and crude oil exports have a statistically significant positive relationship.

目录

声明

Abstract

1．IntroductiOil

1．1 Baekground

1．2 Objectives

2．Literature Review

2．1 Economic Models

2．2 Economic Impact of 0il Export

2．3 Impact of Sandi Arabia Oil Export on Global Economy

2．4 Impact of International Oil Market Developments

3．Methodology

3．1 Model Specification

3．2 Variable Measurement

3．2．1 Gross Domestic Product

3．2．2 Labor Input

3．2．3 Capital Stock

3．2．4 Average Crude Oil Exports

3．3 Research Design

3．4 Sample Selection

4．Results and Discussions

4．1 The Changes of GDP and Oil Export of Saudi Arabia

4．2 Descriptive Analysis of Variables

4．3 Pearson Correlation

4．4 Multivariate Analysis

4．4．1 Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Unit Root Test

4．4．2 Unrestricted Co-integration Rank Test

4．4．3 Granger CausaHty Test

5．Conclusion and Recommendations

5．1 Conclusion

5．2 Recommendation

6．Future Work

Acknowledgment

References

Appendix