巴基斯坦旁遮普省南部农业小额贷款效益研究

摘要

农业小额贷款对社会发展具有重要意义，可以帮助小农户获得信贷，并通过向贫困人口提供经济资源来帮助穷人脱贫。在巴基斯坦农业领域的各种挑战中，正规信贷无法有效介入是阻碍农业生产、提高生产率和农民收入的重要原因之一。自2001年巴基斯坦颁布了《小额贷款条例》，政府加快了小额贷款的推广应用。然而，关于小额贷款对旁遮普省农业生产发展影响方面的研究却很少。
　　本研究试图估计小额贷款在农业生产中的作用与意义，研究小额贷款借款人和非借款人之间的差异。通过计量方法，对农场规模方面的差异性进行比较，包括生产投入、作物产量和收入水平。并确定这些关键因素产生小额贷款的需求。此外，本研究还确定了旁遮普省南方地区小农户降低小额贷款可及性的主要信贷约束因素。本研究选取旁遮普省南部四个区为研究区，采用多阶段抽样方法，选取了十六个村和256个小农户。一次和二次数据已被用于实证分析。通过结构化问卷和进度访谈收集主要数据。次级资料是从农业部获得，巴基斯坦统计局的数据，巴基斯坦和巴基斯坦的小额贷款银行(PMN)网络状态。通过回归模型分析了影响小额贷款可及性的因素和信贷约束因素。采用x2检验确定两组间农场规模、劳动力成本、生产成本、作物产量和农民收入水平是否存在显著差异。柯布-道格拉斯生产函数分析被用来在两个阶段。在第一阶段中，小额贷款作为独立变量，用来估计其对农场规模，投入的数量和作物产量的影响。在第二阶段中，多个生产要素，如小额贷款、劳动力成本、输入量（种子，化肥和农药）进行了分析，以评估其对农业生产的影响，这项研究的结果表明，小额贷款可以显著促进福利对小农户的影响，四个因素（如性别、家庭规模、教育和农场规模）显着影响小额贷款的需求。研究还发现，小额贷款银行分行的距离、大时滞和高利率是影响小农户小额贷款可获得性的关键因素。卡方检验结果表明小额贷款借款人生产成本较高。他们生产更多的农作物产量，获取更高收入。但在人工成本方面，两组比较差异无统计学意义。在生产函数模型中，以小额贷款为自变量，结果表明小额贷款对棉花、甘蔗、水稻等农产品的规模、肥料、农产品生产有较大的影响，而种子、农药等无显著变化。多元回归分析，将所有变量（小额贷款，农场规模，种子，化肥和农药）到一个模型，合理解释(68.3％)的整体农场生产的小额贷款借款人的变化。此外，对于小额贷款机构如性能差的进行一般分析;多变的经济气候，高贷款利率，对银行工作人员的流动性不足，农民的政治干扰和低意识水平也进行了深入的研究。
　　通过评估小额贷款借款人的意见、看法和态度，分析影响小额贷款小额贷款效益的影响因素。一元回归模型和多元回归模型的结果表明，高等教育水平、农民的养老习惯、非农收入来源、畜牧业、种植间作业、合适的天气条件、农场到市场的道路、获得信息或推广服务、小额贷款机构的信贷监控框架等因素对小额贷款效益有显著的影响。相反，研究结果表明，小额贷款对非创收活动、奶农居住地距区域市场的距离远、信贷机构的严格还款计划，小额贷款成本等变量对小额贷款效益有负向影响。由于所有社会因素，经济因素，农业生产技术，环境因素，物理因素和制度因素的影响，调整后的R2的价值解释了小额贷款效益的变化63.16％。这些变量之间存在多重共线性。这表明存在一个因素可能会正向或反向地影响其他因素。最后，听取小额贷款专家和农民的意见后，准备进行可能的对策和策略进行了详细的讨论。据了解，这些策略将有助于改善目前的情况，小额贷款的使用和可用性。这种全面改善有望提高小额贷款在巴基斯坦农业生产力中的作用.

目录

声明

摘要

Abstract

1 Introduction

1．1．1 Background of the Research

1．1．2 Purpose of the Research

1．1．3 Significance of Research

1．2 Summarization of Domestic and Foreign Research

1．2．1 Summarization of Foreign Research

1．2．2 Summarization of Domestic Research

1．2．3 Review of Documents

1．3 Contents and Methods of the Research

1．3．2 Methods of the Research

1．3．3 Technical Route of the Research

2 Related Concepts and Theoretical Basis

2．1 Related Concepts and Theoretical Basis

2．1．4 Measurement of Economic Efficiency

2．1．5 Financial Institutions

2．1．6 Five Cs of Credit

2．2．2 Theory of Fair Interest rate on Microcredit

2．2．3 Credit Risk Management Theory

2．2．4 Theory of Production

2．2．5 Theory of Agriculture Productivity

2．2．6 Input-Output Benefit Analysis

3 Analysis on Current Situation of Agriculture Development in Southern Punjab

3．1．1 Cultivated Farm Area in Southern Punjab

3．1．2 Cropping Pattern of Southern Punjab

3．1．3 Area under Major Crops in Southern Punjab

3．1．4 Production of Important Crops in Southern Punjab

3．2 Major Challenges of Agriculture in Southern Punjab

3．2．1 Environmental Challenges

3．2．2 Irrigation water Management Challenges

3．2．3 Agronomic Challenges

3．2．4 Technological Challenges

3．2．5 Socio Economic Challenges for Farming Community

4 Current Situation of Microcredit Supply forAgriculture in Southern Punjab Province

4．1 Sources of Microcredit Supply for Agriculture in Southern Punjab

4．1．1 Informal Sources of Microcredit

4．1．2 Formal Source of Microcredit Providers

4．2．2 Micro-Finance Institutions(MFI)

4．2．3 Rural Support Programs(RSPs)

4．4 Types of Microcredit Loans for Agriculture in Southern Punjab

4．5 Government Policies for Microcredit Supply in Pakistan

4．5．1 Special Financial Relief Package for Agriculture

4．5．2 Setting up of Pakistan Micro-Finance Investment Company Limited(PMICL)

4．5．3 Credit Guarantee Scheme for Small and Marginalized Farmers

4．5．4 Prime Minister Interest Free Loan Scheme

4．5．5 Establishing Non-Banking Microcredit Institutions

4．7 Major Challenges of Microcredit Development in Southern Punjab

4．7．3 Lack of Institutional Governance for Non-Bank Micro-Finance Providers

4．7．5 Insufficient Funding Profile of Microcredit Institutions

4．7．6 Lack of Deposit Mobilization

4．8 Brief Summary

5 Analysis of Factors Influencing Demand of Agricultural Microcredit in Southern Punjab

5．1 Analysis Framework

5．2 Data Source and Model Selection

5．2．1 Study Area and Data Source

5．2．2 Model Selection

5．3 Analysis Framework

5．3．1 Personal Characteristics of Respondents

5．3．2 Probit Model Results to Evaluate Demand Factors of Microcredit

5．3．3 Results of Logit Model to Evaluate the Microcredit Constraint Factors

5．4 Brief Summary

6 Benefit Analysis of Agricultural Microcredit in Southern Punjab

6．1 Performance Analysis of Microcredit in Pakistan

6．1．1 Scope and Outreach

6．1．2 Sectoral Distribution of Microcredit

6．1．3 Distribution of Microcredit in Agriculture Sector

6．1．4 Gender Distribution

6．1．5 Portfolio Distribution by Lending Methodology

6．1．6 Assets Growth of Micro-Finance Providers(MFPs)

6．1．7 Distribution of Microcredit Market Share among Micro-Finance Providers

6．1．8 Perception of Small Farmers’Towards Microeredit Transaction Costs and Interest Rate

6．2 Data Source and Model Selection

6．2．1 Analysis Framework

6．2．2 Model Selection

6．3 Results of Analysis

6．3．1 Comparative Analysis of Microcredit Benefits

6．3．2 Benefit Analysis of Microcredit on Agriculture Production

6．3．3 Other Welfare Effects of Microcredit on Small-Farmers

6．4 Brief Summary

7 Analysis of Factors Affecting the Benefits of Agricultural Microcredit

7．1 Analysis Framework

7．2 Data Source and Model Selection

7．2．1 Data Source

7．2．2 Model Selection

7．2．3 Definition and Selection of Variables

7．3 Analysis of Results

7．3．1 Impact of Social Factors

7．3．2 Impact of Economic Factor

7．3．3 Impact of Agriculture Production Technologies

7．3．4 Impact of Environmental Factors

7．3．5 Impact of Physical Factors

7．3．6 Impact of Institutional Factor

7．4 Model Results Regarding the Factors influencing Microcredit Benefits

7．5 Brief Summary

8 Improvement Strategies for Microcredit Benefits in Agriculture Sector of Punjab

8．2 Strategies to Magnify the Expansion of Microfinance in Agriculture Sector

8．2．1 Strategies to Improve Accessibility of Microcredit

8．2．2 Strategies to Improve the Self-sufficiency of Micro-Finance Institutions

8．2．3 Strategies to Improve Self-Sustainability of Micro-Finance Institutions

8．3 Strategies to Develop a Conducive Environment for Microcredit and Agriculture

8．3．1 Eeonomic Structural Reforms

8．3．3 Protection of Banking Theorem

8．3．4 Agriculture Marketing Reforms

8．3．5 Financial Intermediation Reforms

8．3．6 Long-Term Strategy for Rural Financial Sector Development

8．3．7 Establishing Rural Farmers Association

8．4 Role of Government and International Donors

8．4．3 Revival of Farmer Cooperatives

8．5 Brief Summary

9 Conclusion

9．1 Conclusion

9．2 Suggestions for Future Research

9．3 Innovative Points and Insufficient of the Research

9．3．1 Innovative Points of the Research

9．3．2 Insufficient of the Research

Acknowledgement

References

Appendix

Papers Published in the period of Ph．D．Education