声明
Dedication
摘要
Abstract
Contents
List of Abbreviations
CHAPTER ONE Technical Issue and Significance
1．1 Background
1．2 Problem Statement
1．3 General Goal of the Study
1．4 Specific Objectives of the Study
1．5 Research questions and Hypotheses
1．5．1 Objective one：Research questions
1．5．2 Objective Two：Research questions
1．5．3 Objective Three：Hypothesis
1．5．4 Objective Four：Hypothesis
1．5．5 Objective Four：Research Question
1．6 Significance of the Study
1．7 Conceptual Framework for a Sustainable Agricultural Insurance Program Implementation
1．8 Organization of Thesis
CHAPTER TWO Literature Review
2．1 Introduction
2．2 Index Insurance from Global Perspectives
2．2．1 Index Insurance in Developed Countries
2．2．2 Index Insurance in Low and Upper Middle Income Countries
2．2．3 Experience of Index Insurance from Developing Countries
2．3 Role of Agricultural Insurance
2．4 Limitations of Agricultural Insurance
2．5 Why Traditional Insurance Product not Suitable in Low Income Countries?
2．6 What Is Index Insurance?
2．7 How Does WII Wdrk?
2．8 Where Is WII Mostly Useful?
2．9 Advantages of WII
2．10 Challenges of WII
2．11 Agricultural Risks and Shocks in Tanzania
2．12 Efforts of Financial Institutions to Reduce Famers Risk In Tanzania
2．13 Agricultural Insurance Progress Tanzania
2．14 Agricultural Insurance Uptake in Tanzania
CHAPTER THREE Methodology
3．1 Introducfion
3．2 Description of Study Area
3．2．1 Tanzania：Location
3．2．2 Tanzania Economy-Overview
3．3 Mara Region
3．3．1 Location and Climate
3．3．2 Population and Economic Activities in Mara
3．4 Bunda District
3．4．1 Location and Climate of Bunda
3．4．2 Population and Economic Activities
3．5 Research design
3．6 Sampling Frame，Sampling Procedure and Sample Size
3．6．1 Sampling Frame
3．6．2 Sample Size
3．6．3 Sampling Procedure
3．6．4 Sampling Unit
3．7 Primary Data Collection
3．7．1 Tools Used for Data Collection
3．7．2 Pre-Testing
3．7．3 Household Data Collection
3．8 Secondary Data Collection
3．9 Data Analysis
3．10 Study Limitations
CHAPTER FOUR Weather Index Insurance Pilot Program Implementation：an Understanding from Cotton Growers’ Focus Groups in Bunda
4．1 Background
4．2 Theoretical Background on Implementation of Risk Hedging Programs
4．2．1 Famers’ Risks，Consequences and Coping Mechanisms
4．2．2 Review on Implementation of Agricultural Insurance
4．3 Specific Study Objective
4．4 Research Questions
4．5 Problem Rationale of the Study Objective
4．6 Materials，Participants and Methods
4．7 Interview structure
4．8 Focus Group Interviews
4．9 Analysis
4．10 Socio-Economic Characteristics of Heads ofAgricultural Households in the Area of Program Implementation
4．10．1 Gender of Household Heads
4．10．2 Age Groups of Respondents
4．10．3 Education Level of Respondents
4．10．4 Family Size of Households
4．10．5 Land Sizes for CoRon Farms of Households
4．10．6 Household Source of Livelihood
4．10．7 Farmers’Income from Cotton Harvest in 2013 Season
4．10．8 Risk Faced by Farmers
4．10．9 Responses of Households on Yield Losses
4．10．10 off-Farm Activities in the Area
4．10．11 Perceived Weather Risks and the Existence of Drought Insurance in theStudy Area
4．10．12 Structure and Operationalization of Drought Insurance Program in Bunda
4．10．13 Compensation from DroughtInsurance
4．10．14 Benefits and Challenges
4．11 Discussion
4．12 Conclusion
CHAPTER FIVE Attitude of Cotton Growers towards Drought Insurance in Tanzania
5．1 Introduction
5．2 Theoretical Background
5．3 Specific Study 0bj ective
5．4 Research Questions
5．5 Methodology
5．5．1 Study Area and Sampling
5．5．2 Construction of Likert Scale and Questionnaire Administration
5．6 Why Factor Analysis?
5．7 Modelling the Factor Analysis Latent Variable
5．8 Performing Factor Analysis
5．9 Results
5．9．1 Reliability Test and Sample Adequacy
5．9．2 Multieolleniarity Test
5．9．3 Performance of the Model
5．9．4 Factor-Variables Relationship
5．9．5 Internal Consistence of Scale Variables
5．9．6 Factors Affecting Attitude of Farmers towards Drought Insurance
5．10 Discussion
5．11 Reasons for Negative Attitudes
5．12 Conclusion
CHAPTER SIX Factors Affecting Holding of Drought Insurance by Smallholders in Bunda，Tanzania
6．1 Introduction
6．2 Theoretical Background
6．2．1 Uptake of Agricultural Insurance
6．2．2 Factors Affecting Uptake of Agricultural Insurance
6．3 Specific Study Objective
6．4 Hypothesis
6．4．1 Null Hypothesis
6．4．2 Alternative Hypothesis
6．5 Test Statistics
6．6 Rejection Region
6．7 Methods
6．7．1 Model Specification
6．7．2 Testing for Correlation and Multicolleniarity
6．8 Results
6．8．1 Strength of Model in Prediction
6．8．2 Classification Table
6．8．3 Model Accuracy
6．8．4 Variables in the Equation
6．9 Discussion
6．10 Conclusion and Recommendations
CHAPTER SEVEN Sustainability of Experimental Drought Insurance in Tanzania：Analysis of Smallholders’ Willingness to Proceed With Contracts
7．1 Introduction
7．2 Specific Study Objectives
7．3 Research Questions
7．4 Hypothesis
7．4．1 Null Hypothesis
7．4．2 Alternative Hypothesis
7．5 Methodology
7．5．1 Sampling and Data Collection
7．5．2 Modelling Willingness to Hold Insurance
7．6 Results and Discussion
7．6．1 Model’s Strength and Testing of Hypothesis
7．7 Willingness to Continue with the Drought Insurance Contract
7．8 Factors Influencing Willingness to Continue With Drought Insurance Contract
7．9 Preparedness of Public and Private Sector to Offer Agricultural Insurance
7．10 Conclusion
7．11 Recommendations
CHAPTER EIGHT Overall Conclusion and Policy Recommendations
8．1 Introduction
8．2 Summary and Conclusions
8．3 Policy Recommendations
8．4 Area for Further Research
References
Appendices
Information on Published Papers
Government’s Approval to carry out a Research on Drought Insurance in Bunda District
Acknowledgements
Biographical Sketch
