An assessment on China's ethanol program development

摘要

The success ofthe Chinese ethanol program can be foreseen ifcertain conditions are met.Inthis regard,the Brazilian experience can teach China some relevant lessons as Brazil’spioneers the ethanol industry and have successfully consolidated its program in the last thirtyyears. Firstly,the Brazilian experience has showed that the government should be the leading forcebehind the implementation ofthe program by setting mandatory blends，that is，creating thedemand side，and by incentivizing the supply side by offering support-namely financialbenefits for production and research and development of new technologies-to producerswhile the industry does not consolidate for itself.Nevertheless，the government shouldguarantee that ethanol production is stable and widely available in fueling stations SO thatconsumers don’t lost confidence on the fuel and abandon its use.Finally,auto manufacturersshould prepare themselves and develop flexible-fuel vehicles，which was a major drivingforce in the consolidation ofthe Brazilian ethanol industry after year 2000，and certainly willbe decisive to the consolidation ofthe Chinese ethanol industry after year 2020，when Chinawill have enough production to further increase the mandatory blends or wider its territorialuse. Secondly,the SUCCESS of the Chinese ethanol program will depend on some factors andparticularities of the country.With limited arable lands，and amidst food security concerns，the Chinese program will most likely focus on production expansion using the concept of‘'non-food’’crops in‘'non-arable'’lands.This is to say that China plans to use feedstocks thatare not largely consumed as food in the country and Can be produced in soils oflower fertility.In this regard，sweet Sorghum，cassava and sugar cane are the feedstocks more likely to beused as they Can grow in diverse regions of the country,such as Xinjiang,Guangxi，Jilin,Hunan，Liaoning，and others.In addition,com ethanol，which represents the majority ofethanol produced in the country，is expected to be no further stimulated as com plays a majorrolein China’S food industry.

目录

1.Introduction

1.1 Significance of this study

1.2 Brazil's ethanol program development

1.2.1 The history of ethanol fuel in Brazil

1.2.2 The current stage of the Brazilian ethanol program

1.2.3 The Flex-Fuel era

1.3 Ethanol industry in Brazil and its effects

1.3.1 Agricultural Technology

1.3.2 Environmental effects

1.3.3 Social effects

1.3.4 Ethanol prices and effects on oil consumption

1.4 Perspectives for the future

2.China's ethanol program development

2.1 A historical look at the Chinese ethanol program

2.2 Advantages and disadvantages of China's ethanol program

2.2.1 Advantages:seeking four objectives

2.2.2 Disadvantages:food security concerns

2.3 Future perspectives for production

3.An impact assessment of the ethanol industry in China

3.1 Impacts on employment levels

3.2 Impacts on income and consumption

4.Conclusions

BIBLIOGRAPHY

LIST OF ABBREVLATIONS AND GLOSSARY