THE CONTRAST RESEARCH OF CALCULATING FORMULA OF NON-OCCURRANCE PROBABILITY R_(0,k)(N) OF MULTIYEAR PERSISTENT WATER DISASTER

摘要

The calculation of the probability R_(0,k)(n) that a multiyear water disaster of runs of length k will not occur in future n years is the base in the probabilitic research of a multiyear persistent water disaster. According to probability theory, an exact formula and an approximate formula of the calculation of R_(0,k)(n) are given in this paper. The formulas are contrastly examined by using data. The results of examination state clearly that the formulas are more concise than the formula given by Lemuel A. Moye et al in 1988.