COST-EFFICIENCIES OF PV R&D IN JAPAN AND THE U.S. FROM THE VIEWPOINT OF SOLAR CELL MANUFACTURING COST REDUCTION

摘要

In this paper, cost-efficiencies of PV R&D in Japan and the U.S. are estimated and compared from theviewpoint of solar cell manufacturing cost reduction. The cost-efficiencies are estimated as follows. Firstlythe authors exclude mass production effects on solar cell manufacturing cost. Secondly, by using experiencecurve, they model technological progress of solar cells, which is relationship between cumulative R&Dexpenditure and the solar cell manufacturing cost. Then the cost-efficiency could be estimated as derivativeof the curve.Based on the analysis, the cost-efficiencies of PV R&D in FY2000 are estimated at 1.7(%/billion yen) inJapan and 0.41 (%/million US$) in the U.S. If we assume 1 US$ = 130 yen, the cost-efficiency in the U.S. isnearly 2 times higher than that in Japan. Furthermore, we could introduce cost-efficiency weighted by solarcell production. The weighted cost-efficiencies in the both two countries are almost the same, if we assumesolar cell production ratio of 129 MW in Japan to 75 MW in the U.S. in the year 2000, that is about 1.7: 1,will last at the same level during 3 to 5-year lead time.These results suggest that PV R&D in the U.S. has a possibility of higher cost-efficiency than that in Japan.Japan might have to concentrate their R&D resources on some selected areas of PV R&D to improve theircost-efficiency.