A STOCHASTIC MARKOV CHAIN MODEL FOR SIMULATING WIND SPEED TIME SERIES at Tangiers, MOROCCO

摘要

Time series of 10 years of Hourly Average Wind Speed, HAWS, data from Tangiers station areanalysed on statistical basis by applying Markovian process. The limiting behaviour of Markov chainis then examined and compared to the histogram of observed wind speed. It was found that a 12x12transition probability matrix was necessary to generate an acceptable synthetic time serie. The mannerin which the Markovian model can be used to generate wind speed time serie is also described.Using the transition probability matrix developed from the real wind data, the synthetic wind speedtime serie is generated. The comparison between the real wind speed and the synthetic one shows thatthe statistical characteristics of wind speed are faithfully reproduced. The synthetic HAWS may beutilised as input data for any wind energy system.