AERIAL SAFETY AS A MODEL OF UNEXPECTED SYSTEMIC EVOLUTION

摘要

Air safety has enjoyed in the past -until 1975- an impressive improvement rate; however, from that date, its improvement rate has been lagging. A big growth in the aerial traffic is forecasted and, consequently, keeping the present rate means also a growth in the number of accidents. However the current safety level could be evaluated as satisfactory, this forecast forces to recover urgently the lost learning capacity. The system, as a whole, improved strongly through technological and normative development; nevertheless, both ways of development can have reached its top as drivers to improvement. Potential improvements for safety have been diverted to the efficiency area and the complexity introduced in the system through its development can produce a situation where an accident is caused by the prevention strategy invented for the former one. Therefore, two fundamental issues deserve to be investigated: 1. Collateral effects of the development model based on technology and regulations. 2. Proposals to recover the learning capacity of the System. The ways that the system chose for its development seem to break some basic principles to keep its operative closure. Identifying these principles and the kind of effects they produce in the whole system can be a guide to get an improved learning capacity in the aerial safety field.