A Solar Radiation Prediction Model Using Weather Forecast Data and Regional Atmospheric Data

摘要

Photovoltaic generation fluctuates depending on weather conditions. A reliable prediction of it is required for efficient use of it. This paper proposes a solar radiation prediction model using weather forecast and regional atmospheric data. Parameters not in weather forecast data are shown to be calculated from other parameters in the weather data. Simulation is carried out using hourly weather data of one year. The simulation results show that the cross correlation coefficient between the predicted and measured radiations is 0.947 and the model is reliable enough to predict hourly solar radiations.