Production of solar radiation bankable datasets from high-resolution solar irradiance derived with dynamical downscaling Numerical Weather prediction model

摘要

A bankable solar radiation database is required for the financial viability of solar energy project. Accurate estimation of solar energy resources in a country is very important for proper siting, sizing and life cycle cost analysis of solar energy systems. During the last decade an important progress has been made to develop multiple solar irradiance database (Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) and Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI)), using satellite of different resolution and sophisticated models. This paper assesses the performance of High-resolution solar irradiance derived with dynamical downscaling Numerical Weather Prediction model with, GIS topographical solar radiation model, satellite data and ground measurements, for the production of bankable solar radiation datasets. For this investigation, NWP model namely Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO) is used for the dynamical downscaling of solar radiation. The obtained results increase confidence in solar radiation data base obtained from dynamical downscaled NWP model. The mean bias of dynamical downscaled NWP model is small, on the order of a few percents for GHI, and it could be ranked as a bankable datasets. Fortunately, these data are usually archived in the meteorological department and gives a good idea of the hourly, monthly, and annual incident energy. Such short time-interval data are valuable in designing and operating the solar energy facility. The advantage of the NWP model is that it can be used for solar radiation forecast since it can estimate the weather condition within the next 72-120 hours. This gives a reasonable estimation of the solar radiation that in turns can be used to forecast the electric power generation by the solar power plant.