Evaluation of Probabilistic Precipitation Forecast Using TIGGE data over Huaihe Basin

摘要

@@ 1.Introduction Rainfall is o ne of the most import ant weather phenomena which could result in severe flood and huge economic loss. A timely and accurate quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) is a primary goal of operational predictio n and one of the most factor that af fects the issuance of flood warning( Gourley and V ieux, 2005 ). Short-ran ge, especially medium-range precipitation forecast, have been greatly improved by employing the ensemble prediction systems (Charba and Klein 1980; Charba et al. 2003). However, quantitative precipit ation forecast s lose skill ra pidly with r ange than forecast of any other surface elements (Sanders, 1986), such as the temperature forecast s. In order to improve a single ensem ble prediction system (EPS), multi-model prediction syst em (MPS) and probabilistic predicti on were developed with considering the characteristics of many EPS, i.e.. The simulation of initial uncert ainties (Park et al, 2008; Johnson and Swinbank 2009). The THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) program provides a ver y g ood opportunity for MPS, probabilistic precipitation, and flood with further research.