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Performance Evaluation of the AREM Prediction System for the Successive Heavy Rain Forecast of May 2010 in South China

机译:华南地区2010年5月连续暴雨预报AREM预报系统的性能评估。

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@@ 1 Introduction AREM modelis a heavy rainfall numerical prediction model with China's own intellectual property right which take into account our country's unique topography and climate characteristics, so it has comprehensive application basis in the field of meteorology, hydrology and environment. AREM operational version has been running in Wuhan Institute of Heavy Rain since 2003. Many aspects of the AREM model, including background fields, objective analysis method, boundary condition, the top height of model, and forecast period, was upgraded and improved to enhance heavy rain forecast accuracy in recent years. AREM improved version were developed in July 2007. Based on the AREM model platform the rapid update cycle (RUC) version and ensemble prediction model have been developed and put into operational use. So a complete AREM prediction system consist of operational model, improved model, RUC model and ensemble model was been constructed. Then the forecast effect and character of the member of the AREM prediction system was the focus for the forecaster and the model developer.
机译:@@ 1引言AREM模型是一种具有中国自主知识产权的强降雨数值预测模型,它考虑了我国独特的地形和气候特征,因此在气象,水文和环境领域具有广泛的应用基础。自2003年以来,AREM运行版本已在武汉暴雨研究所运行。对AREM模型的许多方面进行了升级和改进,包括背景场,客观分析方法,边界条件,模型的最高高度和预测期,以增强暴雨能力。近年来降雨预报的准确性。 2007年7月开发了AREM改进版本。基于AREM模型平台,开发了快速更新周期(RUC)版本和整体预测模型并投入使用。因此,构建了由运行模型,改进模型,RUC模型和集成模型组成的完整的AREM预测系统。然后,AREM预测系统成员的预测效果和特征是预测者和模型开发者的重点。

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