The Flood Forecast Test on Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) Coupling with Hydrological Model

摘要

@@ 1. Introduction Rainstorm is the major catastrophic weather affect China. Floods co me form torrential rains often brought huge losses to People's lives and property of the national economic construction. Precipitation in Foreseeable period has a direct impact on the accuracy of flood forecasting. The lon ger the period foreseen, the greater the impact on the forecast results. Therefore, the rainfall in foreseeable period and the flood forecasting co upling tec hnology has gr adually been c oncemed by majority of hy drologist and meteorologist in recen t years (YANG Wen-fa,2003; WANG Qing-zai,2003; 11 Chaoqun GUO Shenglian,2006). At present, w ith the rapid development of the numerical prediction's theory and methods, numerical prediction is now becoming an scientific method to achieve fixed, timing and q uantitative rainstorm precipitation an d prov ide strong su pport fo rthe estimates o f rainfall in fo reseeable perio d in Hydrological model. So under t he s upport of mesoscale rainstorm n umerical mo del fo recasting technique, combined wit h flood process of t he Z hangHe res ervoir basin during the flood s eason in 2008, th e paper made a pilot study o f short-term flood forecasting consid ering th e Preci pitation in Foreseeable period.