Demographic and Spatial Factors as Causes of an Epidemic Spread, the Copule Approach: Application to the Retro-prediction of the Black Death Epidemy of 1346

摘要

The classical models by Ross and McKendrick have to be revisited in order to incorporate dynamical elements coming from the demography and from the spatial aspects of epidemics. The classical approach is dealing with populations supposed to be constant during the epidemic wave, but the present pandemics show duration during years imposing now to take into account the population growth as well as the transient or permanent migrations of hosts susceptible or infected, and of vectors and infectious agents. Two examples are studied, concerning malaria in Mali and plague at the middle-age.