AIR-QUALITY PROGNOSIS, FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ABATEMENT STRATEGIES OVER LARGE URBAN AREAS

摘要

State-of-the-art approaches for urban air-quality characterisation have several drawbacks due to a-priori assumptions and/or due to inherent limitations of the concept utilised. For the evaluation of abatement scenarios it is either necessary to embark on extensive monitoring campaigns or to consistently apply numerical models for atmospheric dispersion. The 'ENVISOR' methodology applied here is a mixture of the two approaches. It forecasts pollutant concentrations during real episodes and assesses the impact from the construction of a new highway across a large urban domain of 100×100 km~2. Data from an extensive monitoring network are used to identify real modelling periods and for validating the modelling simulations. The selected periods are aiming to the assessment of 'annual mean' or 'episodic' conditions. These periods are short-listed according to the abatement scenario under consideration. This approach yields accurate forecasts for the concentration of pollutants after extensive validation tests extended over the whole domain. It is foreseen that the impact from the highway construction will be minimal for photochemical pollution whereas, higher impact will result for inert pollutants due to additional emissions from the highway.