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I Don't Want to Think about It Now: Decision Theory with Costly Computation

机译:我现在不想考虑:具有昂贵计算能力的决策理论

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Computation plays a major role in decision making. Even if an agent is willing to ascribe a probability to all states and a utility to all outcomes, and maximize expected utility, doing so might present serious computational problems. Moreover, computing the outcome of a given act might be difficult. In a companion paper we develop a framework for game theory with costly computation, where the objects of choice are Turing machines. Here we apply that framework to decision theory. We show how well-known phenomena like first-impression-matters biases (i.e., people tend to put more weight on evidence they hear early on), belief polarization (two people with different prior beliefs, hearing the same evidence, can end up with diametrically opposed conclusions), and the status quo bias (people are much more likely to stick with what they already have) can be easily captured in that framework. Finally, we use the framework to define some new notions: value of computational information (a computational variant of value of information) and computational value of conversation.
机译:计算在决策中起着重要作用。即使代理人愿意将概率分配给所有状态并将效用分配给所有结果,并最大化期望的效用,这样做可能会带来严重的计算问题。而且,计算给定行为的结果可能很困难。在随附的论文中,我们开发了具有昂贵计算能力的博弈论框架,其中选择的对象是图灵机。在这里,我们将该框架应用于决策理论。我们展示了众所周知的现象,例如第一印象方面的偏见(即人们倾向于更重视早日听到的证据),信念分化(两个人的先验信念不同,听到相同的证据)可能最终导致截然相反的结论)和现状偏见(人们更有可能坚持自己已经拥有的东西)可以在该框架中轻松捕获。最后,我们使用框架定义一些新概念:计算信息的值(信息值的计算变体)和会话的计算值。

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