Potential Demand Analysis for Bicycle Commuting in Japan: A Case Study for Takasaki Metropolitan Areas

摘要

This research is concerned with potential demand analysis for bicycle commuting in Japan, with a case study on Takasaki metropolitan areas where car usage exceeds 90%. The paper begins with an introduction to ransportation Demand Management (TDM) measures and their practices in Japan. This is followed by an analysis of the potential demand for bicycle commuting, using Person Trip Surveys conducted in Maebashi-Takasaki in 1995. The paper describes the design details of Stated Preferences (SP) survey targeting car commuters and discusses the estimation results for mode choice model. The paper then conducts a sensitivity analysis for potential demand for bicycle commuting under several policy scenarios and examines the effects of bicycling commuting policy scenarios using micro-simulation model. The results demonstrates that bicycling commuting measure is an effective tool for alleviating traffic confestion.