Zero Emission Goals for HDVs in Norway - How to Evaluate the Options?

摘要

Norway have the most ambitious zero emission goals for the transport sector in the world. By 2025, all new passenger cars, city busses and LDV are zero emission vehicles. By 2030, all heavy delivery trucks, 75 % of long distance busses and 50% of heavy-duty trucks are zero emission vehicles. At the end of 2018, 40% of new passenger cars registered are pure battery electric vehicles. The city busses are moving in the direction of electrification. For 2019, we expect 20-30 % of city busses to be pure BEVs. But what will happen to the other HDVs? Will battery technology develop fast enough? Will hydrogen enter the market? Will electric roads come to our rescue? This paper compare these three technologies, based on information from different projects. The task set out in this work is to cover the main transport route from Oslo to Trondheim (500 km) with 1000 meters altitude at the highest point with a 50-ton truck. The information sources vary in level of technological maturity, economic certainty and information availability. This paper explores a possible evaluation methodology, known or estimated costs, and sensitivity analysis for comparing the different technologies. Can this methodology point in a direction of the most likely solution for HDVs of the future?