System Dynamics Research on Improving the Industrial Structure of Baoshan District of Shanghai

摘要

The research target was to find a way to make the important factors such as gross economy, population,nature resources, environment etc. in Baoshan District of Shanghai develop harmoniously. System Dynamics (SD) method was utilized to analyze the numerous and complicated relations among these factors in order to seek a rational mode of Baoshan industrial structure.Three schemes were designed under different conditions:(1) Making no change to the present industrial development pattern; (2) Paying equal attention to the development of the secondary industry; (3) Developing the tertiary industry mostly. The three schemes were compared with each other by simulating their dynamics trends and analyzing various parts of the system feedback mechanisms respectively. Some policy suggestions for improving the industrial structure were put forward,which may provide some scientific basis for making out the 11th Five-year Plan of economic and social development of Baoshan District.