RISK HANDLING NATURAL HAZARDS NEW STRATEGIES IN COASTAL DEFENSE - A CASE STUDY FROM SCHLESWIG-HOLSTEIN, GERMANY

摘要

The Research and Technology Centre Westcoast (FTZ) is carrying out a micro-scale risk evaluation study for selected coastal lowlands along the German North Sea and Baltic Sea coasts. This work is within a framework of a reorientation in the German coastal defence policies of Schleswig-Holstein. The methodology developed here is cost-effective and can be applied to other coastal zones. A generic concept of Risk Handling & Natural hazards developed in the early phase ensures generality to different administrative and political levels. The method includes the three interlinked segments of risk analysis, risk evaluation and risk management. A hazard determination is carried out for the different study areas on the coasts of the North and Baltic Sea on the basis of the given hydrological and morphological conditions. The specific flooding- and dike breach probability is computed. In parallel, the damage potential is assessed through a vulnerability analysis. The expected damages can then be evaluated through an examination of different scenarios. The specific risk can be calculated for the different study areas on the basis of a combination of occurence probability and damages. Out of these results strategies and measures for preparedness and mitigation shall be diverted in the frame of the subsequent risk management. The methodology is useful for both disaster planning and recovery.