Sea Level Rise in the New York City Metropolitan Area

摘要

Sea level rise due to climate warming will amplify coastal hazards such as storm surges, beach erosion, and loss of wetlands. Sea level in the New York metropolitan region has risen steadily by 22-39 cm during the 20th century. Projections based on both historic trends and climate model simulations (Hadley Centre, UK and Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis) suggest that regional sea levels could climb another 18-60 cm by the 2050s and 24-108 cm by the 2080s, over late 20th century levels. The return period of the 100-year storm flood could be reduced, on average, to 19-68 years by the 2050s and 4-60 years by the 2080s, resulting in more frequent damaging coastal floods. Around 38% of the land surface of salt marsh islands has disappeared in Jamaica Bay, New York City between 1974 and 1999, due to the interaction of a number of anthropogenic factors and sea level rise. Given these stresses, the saltmarshes are not likely to survive accelerated sea level rise without urgent remedial action. The modest sea level change projected for the next 20-30 years provides a grace period during which coastal managers, planners, and other stakeholders can develop appropriate mitigation/adaptation strategies and policies to cope with longer-term sea level rise.