PROGNOSTIC TECHNOLOGY - NEW CHALLENGES

摘要

New Weapon System development programs have become highly reliant on the success of efforts to develop and integrate automated Diagnostic and Prognostic technology. These technologies are driving the implementation of new maintenance approaches and are central to achieving the reductions in manning and operating costs on these new systems. This has renewed the R&D focus on prognostic technology. While prognostic solutions for some mechanical systems and electronic systems are emerging, they yet have to be verified and validated. Development of prognostics for structures, especially in the area of corrosion effects, presents its own set of challenges. There are new challenges in getting the right data to enable prognostics, training the maintainer to deal with failure prediction as opposed to failure detection, and applying the prognostic result in an operational scenario. Emerging needs for thorough Verification and Validation (V&V) methods and independent "honest broker" technology evaluation must also be addressed to clear the way for the successful fielding of new systems with integrated prognostic capability. This paper discusses the status of and current issues associated with prognostic technologies, sets some notional definitions, frameworks, and metrics for measuring future development progress and outlines some of the results of recent related workshops.