DEVS modeling and simulation based on Markov Decision Process of financial leverage effect in the EU development programs

摘要

The evaluation of development programs has become essential to verify their success. Indeed, it is necessary to develop prediction tools of the still-planned programs, in a special phase called ex-ante phase, to simulate the effects of fictitious programs or changes in the existing program structure in order to predict the level of leverage of a program from its design stage as well as during the project. The proposed paper consists of the definition of a DEVS-based Markov Decision Process model which, after simulation, may constitute an ex-ante evaluation of a development program. First promising simulation results are presented and seems to confirm the right way of the proposed approach.