Exploring the Causal Relationship between Freight Transport and Economic Activities in China

摘要

In accordance with the need for an appropriate government intervention and policy instruments in order to encourage a modal shift from less sustainable modes of transport--particularly road transport--to environmentally friendly modes, such as rail and water (coastal and inland waterways) transport while maintaining economic growth, this paper will assess the causal relationship between freight transport and economic activities in China and examine the possible factors affecting the relationship between the transport demand and the development of the Chinese economy. As the study indicates,road transport has a strong link with economic growth (GDP) in China, while the total freight transport and railway transport appear to be weakly linked with economic activities. The possible reasons behind the weak link between transport demand and Chinese economy are mainly identified: the coastal concentration of growth; the structural shift of GDP toward sectors that less transport-intensive; and (statistic) measurement error in road traffic.