The Influence of Energy Policy and Security Energy Supply Policy of Indonesia to Asia-Pacific Coal Distribution in 2025

摘要

Indonesia holds a significant role in the utilisation of coal resources in the world. Although the number of Indonesian coal resources and reserves do not fall into the world's top ten, according to 2009 statistics, Indonesia is the seventh largest producer of coal with a production of 256 Mt. More than 80 per cent of this amount is sold in the export market, making Indonesia the world's second largest coal exporter. Most of the exported coal from Indonesia is used to fulfil the needs of the Pacific market, such as Japan, Taiwan, China, among others. It is also possible to reach the Atlantic market. Along with Indonesia's development program, until 2025 the Indonesian government has adopted a National Energy Policy that aims to reduce the role of petroleum in electricity generation and replacing it with coal. As a follow-up of the policy, since 2009 PT PLN, the state electricity company has built steam power plants throughout Indonesia as an implementation of the first stage of the Electrical Acceleration Project with a capacity of 10 000 MW. Moving forward, in 2011 PT PLN will also build the second stage of the project with a capacity of 10 000 MW. As a result of the program, the domestic need for coal is expected to increase as much as 44.8 Mt. With the increase in domestic need and decrease in the number of reserves, the Indonesian government has adopted policies to secure the domestic coal supply. A policy that may potentially be adopted by the government is the limiting of coal production, seeing the high rate of increase in Indonesian coal production. The adoption of such a policy will change the distribution map of coal in the Pacific market. Thus, this paper will evaluate the change of coal distribution patterns in the Pacific market along with the increase in Indonesian domestic needs and Indonesian adoption of policies regarding the securing of coal supplies.