A new method for debris-flow hazard assessment in alluvial fans

摘要

A new method to identify the probability of an area in an alluvial fan being flooded is proposed. This method takes into account in a simplified way the propagation of debris flow in the main channel, evaluate the outflowing discharge and the spreading of the outflow in the alluvial fan. The method is applied to identify the zones with the same probability to be flooded in the alluvial fan of Gianico, located on Italian Alps in Northen Italy. It allows to take into account the uncertainties in the estimation of the model parameters and the effects of these uncertainties in the extension of the risk-prone areas are discussed.