Forecasting of Customs Export Based on Gray Theory

摘要

Customs export plays a pivotal role in this country's economy and the social change. Forecasting customs export efficiently enables policy makers to plan more appropriately and thus to help to improve the balance of trade. Customs export traditionally is forecasted by using econometric methods. This paper focused on the gray theory and uses G.M(1,1) model to forecast Hubei Province's export value via historical data. The results show that this model can forecast customs export more accurately than can an econometric model, Hubei Province's exports in 2009 will continue to go up..