UNCERTAINTY IN RISK TO AIRCRAFT FROM SPACE VEHICLE OPERATIONS

摘要

In this project, we investigate methods forrnunderstanding uncertainty in the risk to aircraft fromrnspace vehicle accidents. We have developed heuristicrnmodels of the uncertainty in aircraft vulnerabilityrnmodels, aircraft speed and altitude, and space vehiclerndebris lists. We then compute aircraft risks accountingrnfor these uncertainties for both the grid risk approachrnand by considering many different azimuth trajectoriesrnthrough a point. The uncertainty is compared to thernvariation as a function of azimuth, to the size of thernapproximation in the grid approach, and to the effect ofrnaircraft size. Although the uncertainty estimates in thernvulnerability model and debris list are based only onrnengineering judgment, we draw preliminary conclusionsrnthat 1) uncertainties in these models are smaller than therneffect of the difference between common commercialrnaircraft sizes and that 2) the uncertainty in the debris listrnis most significant of the uncertainties we considered,rnfollowed by the uncertainty in the vulnerability model.