A fuzzy rule-based model to link circulation patterns, ENSO, and extreme precipitation

摘要

The purpose of this pape is to develop a fuzzy rule-based model (FBM) to analyze local monthly exteeme precipitation events conditioned on macrocirculation patterns (CPs) and El Nino/Southern oscillation (ENSO). A case study in Arizona is presented to illustrate the methodology. The input variables of the FRBM consist of the monthly CPs and lagged Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) data; the output of the model is an estimate of local extreme precipitation. The daily CPs have been previously defined o ver the eestern United States by an automated clustering method, namely, principal component analysis coupled with K-menas clustering.