Guidelines and tools to prevent risks in valleys downstream from large dam-reservoir systems: a review

摘要

An integrated dam-reservoir-valley risk management system can be conceptually composed of two parts: the risk assessment process, in which an approximate quantitative risk analysis and evaluation is made, and the risk mitigation process, in which actions to reduce the risk are identified and implemented. This study presents a philosophy of dam-reservoir and valley system safety, taking into account both principles of preventing accidents and minimizing damage. The mitigation of possible hazards due to a dam accident or incident must consider the uncertainties of predicted effects on a dam due to input parameters and variables of a stochastic nature. In this context, a methodology is proposed to calculate uncertainties of predicted loads on dams due to horizontal ground motions caused by earthquakes and to waves generated by landslides into reservoirs, which become functions of random variables. A methodology is also proposed for management of accidents combining risk management and civil protection.