Vulnerability assessment survey of oil and gas facilities to climate-driven sea level rises and storm surges on the west coast of Trinidad

摘要

Greenhouse gas (GHG) climate change/global warming is one of the most pressing environmental concerns today. Small Island States, such as Trinidad and Tobago, are highly vulnerable to climate change because of their small size and low elevation, as in the case of this study, which increases their sensitivity to climate change and limits their ability to adapt. In fact, the adaptive capacity of human systems is generally low in Small Island States, and vulnerability generally high. The Petroleum Company of Trinidad and Tobago (PETROTRIN) recently conducted a detailed vulnerability assessment survey and storm surge simulation through modelling for the west coast of Trinidad stretching from Vessigny River in the North to Cap-de-Ville in the South along the Gulf of Paria. This survey was undertaken so as to identify the impacts of climate driven, sea level rises and extreme storm surge events on Petrotrin's and Trinmar's infrastructure and operations. The methodology used to conduct this vulnerability rnassessment survey involved coupling A-OGCM (Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation) model simulations of future sea level rises and TAOS (Total Arbiter of Storms) estimates of storm surges to a GIS-based inundation and erosion scheme so as to estimate land loss and infrastructure facilities at risk from inundation and erosion. The results of the study show that field installations in Petrotrin at Guapo, such as access roads, pipelines, storage tanks and even pump jacks and the offshore operations of Trinmar including offshore platforms, jetties and harbours and administrative buildings would be at severe risk of inundation and erosion deriving from sea level rises and storm surge events.