Hydrologic Scenario Simulation and Related Techniques Forecasting Land Use/Land Cover Changes

摘要

Hydrologic scenario simulation plays an important role in region planning, disaster prevention and mitigation. Hydrologic scenario simulation is a technique obtaining future hydrologic scenarios by importing future climate scenarios and land use/land cover change scenarios in the hydrological model. It includes techniques such as establishing catchment spatio-temporal database, constructing hydrological simulation model, generating future climatic change scenarios and land use/land cover change scenarios. Due to the sharp decrease and serious waste of water resource, Guishui river watershed of Yanqing County, the rural plain area in Beijing is selected as study area. This paper elaborates the process of using the hydrological model to simulate hydrologic scenarios. The key methods and techniques of generating future climate scenarios and land use/cover change scenarios in the process are discussed in details.