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Critical Issues in the Management of Catastrophic and Global Risks

机译:灾难性和全球风险管理中的关键问题

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The present paper critically addresses the problem complex of management of catastrophic and global risks from a holistic perspective. It assesses the practice of dealing with large scale and catastrophic risks; offers a definition of catastrophic risks relative to the societies they affect; and discusses the nature of global catastrophic risks in terms of scale and randomness, with a special view on the decisive factors for their predictability, their temporal and spatial evolution and their manageability. In this context, it is argued that systemic risks such as perception biases constitute the most severe threat to sustainable societal developments. A framework for risk informed decision making is then outlined, which specifically addresses robustness and adaptability of decisions in the face of the large uncertainties associated with societal developments and non-ergodic hazard processes. Subsequently, the issue of how society may decide to allocate economic resources to deal with catastrophic risks is discussed from the perspective of individual nations as well as in the context of supra-national resource allocation. Finally, possible instruments for the governance of global catastrophic risks are outlined and discussed.
机译:本文从整体的角度批判性地解决了灾难性和全球风险管理的复杂问题。它评估应对大规模和灾难性风险的做法;提供有关其所影响社会的灾难性风险的定义;并从规模和随机性的角度讨论了全球灾难性风险的性质,并就其可预测性,时间和空间演变以及可管理性的决定性因素作了特别的论述。在这种情况下,有人认为诸如感知偏差之类的系统性风险是对可持续社会发展的最严重威胁。然后概述了风险知情决策的框架,该框架专门解决了面对与社会发展和非遍历危险过程相关的巨大不确定性时决策的鲁棒性和适应性。随后,从各个国家的角度以及在超国家资源分配的背景下,讨论了社会如何决定分配经济资源以应对灾难性风险的问题。最后,概述和讨论了用于管理全球灾难性风险的可能工具。

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