Bayesian Modeling of Reliability Management of Heating Boilers

摘要

Bayesian networks and their associated methods are especially suited for capturing and dealing with uncertainty. They can be successfully applied both in engineering sciences and in the reliability analysis of district heating systems. In this paper we propose an interactive Bayesian-network and decision-theoretic systems which intend to monitor the impact of the reliability of boilers on the operative costs and emissions, predicting likely outcome and selecting appropriate decisions.