The Fuzzy Bass Model of Innovation Diffusion and Its Application on the Mobile Communication Technology in China

摘要

The effects of the outside factors such as ads and other media, and the inside factors such as oral communication on the speed of innovation diffusion are considered in deterministic circumstance, as well as the maximum market potential. However, with the development of the market economy, the effect factors and their effects at different stages of innovation diffusion process should be in an ambiguous status. Therefore, we build a fuzzy model, and using fuzzy weighted implicit scheme algorithm to simulate the process of innovation diffusion with fuzzy initial condition and fuzzy market potential respectively. We also make an empirical analysis on the diffusion process of mobile communication technology in China with GA, which show that the fuzzy model is more adaptable than the deterministic Bass model.