Forecasting the Development of Heavy-Oil Reserves in Ultra-Deep Waters Using Technological Risk Models

摘要

The largest remaining reserves of heavy oil can bernconsidered an important energy source for future supply.rnRecent discoveries of heavy-oil in ultra-deep environmentsrnhave stimulated several companies in investing in these newrnassets for future revenues despite the uncertainties aboutrntechnology development for future field exploitation.rnThis paper presents a forecast model for assessing futurerntechnology achievements – necessary for the development ofrnheavy oil fields in ultra-deep water - through logistic utilityrnmodels. Using simulation results of three hypothetical fieldsrnwith similar characteristics to some recent discoveries inrnCampos Basin in Brazil, a scenario for the next ten years wasrndeveloped based on the decision to go ahead with the projects.rnA time-trend curve was employed to estimate the necessaryrnperiod to achieve suitable technologies for field developmentrn(costs reduction) using a technological risk-aversionrncoefficient. The forecast model executes an economicrnsensitivity analysis on key input variables such as oil prices,rnoil characteristics (viscosity, API gravity), production profile,rncapital expenditures and operational costs. These uncertainrnparameters are important because production technologies forrnheavy oil in ultra-deep waters are not completely dominatedrnby the industry.rnSimulations from three selected models indicated thatrnunder the worst CAPEX and OPEX scenario for heavy oil, arnvalue reduction of 50% would be necessary for bothrnparameters and the logistic model estimates that therntechnology would only be available after 10 years.