Probabilistic Modeling of Ice Environment from Lighthouses Zone in the Gulf of Bothnia

摘要

Ice-bound conditions in the Arctic seas are the most hazards for thernoffshore shipping and navigation. For the lot of the engineering objectsrnexploited in severe ice environment, the ice loads determine theirrnconstructive sizes, stability, reliability and durability. It is obvious thatrnin order to calculate loads and effects from the ice features, it isrnnecessary to study a statistical variability of their properties and torndevelop actual probabilistic long-time models of ice conditions.rnThe purpose of this study is to develop the probabilistic model of thernice cover and ice loads on the Raahe lighthouse in the Gulf of Bothnia,rntaking into account correlation and statistical dependence of essentialrnfactors of ice environment. For the probabilistic analysis and modelingrnthe full-scale observation data of ice regime of an Oulu and Raahernlighthouses zone in the Gulf of Bothnia have been processed for winterrnseasons of 2005÷2009 years. The result of investigations is thernprobabilistic model of ice conditions and ice loads on concreternfoundation of Raahe lighthouse for various ice scenarios taking intornaccount correlation and stochastic relationship between observed valuesrnof ice parameters.