End-user participation and the evolution of organizational information systems: an empirical assessment of Nolan's stage model

摘要

Nolan's stage hypothesis on the growth of data processing provides a popular framework for describing the typical development patterns of organizational information systems. Up until now, a few limited tests have been published to ensure formally the reliability of the stage model. We report on an empirical study of 130 major Finnish edp user organizations where the aim was to test the power of Nolan's stage model. Several of Nolan's benchmarks were used as measures of the stage of development but special attention was given to the role of end-users in systems development. Not only were the actual stages of development measured but also estimates of the future changes in the major benchmarks were compared for typical groups of organizations.

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Our tests show that there are significant differences both in the stage and speed of development between organizations even with the same experience in computing. We have been able to assure that Nolan's model is a good descriptor of the average patterns of changes in data processing but it is not able to predict the development. The Nolan model seems to be confined within the limits of its own historical background.