A COMPARISON OF AUDITORS' GOING CONCERN OPINIONS AND TWO DIFFERENT BANKRUPTCY MODELS: AN ANALYSIS OF U.S. TRADE AND SERVICE INDUSTRY FAILURES 1974-1988.

摘要

This study reconsiders the efficacy of auditors' opinions in comparison to two bankruptcy predictionrnmodels in light of the current crisis facing the auditing profession. We compare bankruptcy predictionsrnfor two very different bankruptcy models against the auditors' going concern opinions for a group ofrnbankrupt firms in the US. Firstly, predictions are made using Altman's (1968) Multiple DiscriminantrnAnalysis (MDA) model that includes only financial ratio variables in its formulation and secondly, usingrna temporal logit model by Cybinski (1998, 2000) that also includes explicit factors of the businessrncycles. The results show better bankruptcy classification rates for the temporal model than for thernAltman model and audit opinions.