THE APPLICATION OF GM (1,1) MODEL OF GREY PREDICTION TO SUPPLY AND DEMAND OF DOCTOR’S MANPOWER FOR OTOLARYNGOLOGISTS IN TAIWAN

摘要

Over the years, low-risk otolaryngology has been becoming a more popular choice for Taiwan’s newly-admitted physicians given the fact that people in Taiwan are increasingly paying attention to medical matters, compounding more medical disputes and lowered national health insurance payment. It has resulted in a physician manpower imbalance. The imbalance will lead to the medical quality problem, so it is a crucial issue that the government shall place a high priority. Due to the short history of national health insurance in Taiwan, very few physician manpower statistics are available. Thus, it is difficult to get precise results by using conventional prediction methods with limited data. Under such circumstances, based on national health insurance statistics, this study uses the GM (1,1) model, which produces a grey prediction with a small amount of data, to proceed with the prediction for the demand and supply of physician manpower in Taiwan. The results show that the supply of otolaryngologists in Taiwan will exceed the demand for 2005 through 2008, and the gap will be increasing year by year. The study also suggests that the GM (1,1) model be applicable for the research on the planning of physician manpower.