Risk Management Lessons from Man-Made Catastrophes Implications for Anti-Terrorism Risk Assessments

摘要

The attributes observed in organizations that experience large catastrophes suggest that the incidence of such events can be greatly reduced or eliminated by avoiding these attributes and having more risk-informed basis for risk management decisions. Possible lessons from seven prior events and two current events are noted. This paper examines the possible lessons learned from such man-made disasters that might lead to better 'risk informed ' decision making for risk management of the responses to the threats of terrorist attacks. Chronic obstacles to the acceptance of more quantitative approaches to risk are noted, including widespread confusion of the meaning of terms such as threat, hazard, danger, vulnerability and risk The role of integration of risk assessment with risk management and resource allocations policy is judged to be more central to success than communication. A simple Delphi-related non-statistical method for relative risk assessments is described that can be used at any level of risk management. It can provide immediate 'user friendly' guidance where more formal risk assessment is unavailable or impractical. It provides a framework for orderly recording and integrating of qualified judgements on risk controlling factors, and the bases for such judgements. It provides a crucial framework for cumulative 'lessons learned.' The relative assessments are robust and involve the same steps required to initiate formal probabilistic risk assessments.