Beyond Iraq: The new challenges to the nuclear nonproliferation regime

摘要

The future of the nuclear non-proliferation regime is once again questioned. In the mid-nineties, therninternational community was thinking to be able to fix nuclear non-proliferation for some time. Therninstruments to prevent nuclear proliferation have been considerably strengthened and some havernbeen added. An additional protocol has been adopted to give the IAEA, the means to detectrnundeclared activities, nuclear export controls have been reinforced, the NPT has been indefinitelyrnextended, the CTBT has been open to signature and a mandate for a cut-off treaty adopted. But allrnhopes have vanished. At the dawn of the 21st century, the horizon is blurred. The pace of additionalrnprotocol is very slow. Forty-eight NPT countries have no safeguards agreements. Countries outsidernthe NPT will not join it soon. CTBTO will not enter into force in the coming years. The cut-offrntreaty is still in the limbo at the CD. At the same time, new worrying challenges to the IAEArnsafeguards and the nuclear non-proliferation regime as a whole have sprang up. North Korea hasrnwithdrawn from the NPT and is suspected to produce plutonium and enrich uranium for nuclearrnweapons. Iran is in violation of its undertakings and is suspected to conceal a nuclear weaponrnprogramme, Libya have unveiled and gave up nuclear ambition. An international black market ofrnsensitive technologies from Pakistan has been uncovered. Aside, past negligence and resistance tornthe AP show up (South Korea, Brazil, and Egypt). Involvement of non state actors and nuclearrnterrorism is also a new development to deal with. How to tackle these new fearsome challenges?rnSome answer as PSI, UNSC resolution 1540, G8, have already been given. The answer is probablyrnboth political and technical, to allow the organisms in charge to recruit highly specialized expertsrnand implement edge technique and to actually address the issue as the whole and to give thernorganism in charge the legal means, including addressing the missile proliferation, thernreinforcement of the role of the Security Council, the creation of a new inspectorate. This documentrnaddress technical and political aspects of the question.