The future of the nuclear non-proliferation regime is once again questioned. In the mid-nineties, the international community was thinking to be able to fix nuclear non-proliferation for some time. The instruments to prevent nuclear proliferation have been considerably strengthened and some have been added. An additional protocol has been adopted to give the IAEA, the means to detect undeclared activities, nuclear export controls have been reinforced, the NPT has been indefinitely extended, the CTBT has been open to signature and a mandate for a cut-off treaty adopted. But all hopes have vanished. At the dawn of the 21st century, the horizon is blurred. The pace of additional protocol is very slow. Forty-eight NPT countries have no safeguards agreements. Countries outside the NPT will not join it soon. CTBTO will not enter into force in the coming years. The cut-off treaty is still in the limbo at the CD. At the same time, new worrying challenges to the IAEA safeguards and the nuclear non-proliferation regime as a whole have sprang up. North Korea has withdrawn from the NPT and is suspected to produce plutonium and enrich uranium for nuclear weapons. Iran is in violation of its undertakings and is suspected to conceal a nuclear weapon programme, Libya have unveiled and gave up nuclear ambition. An international black market of sensitive technologies from Pakistan has been uncovered. Aside, past negligence and resistance to the AP show up (South Korea, Brazil, and Egypt). Involvement of non state actors and nuclear terrorism is also a new development to deal with. How to tackle these new fearsome challenges? Some answer as PSI, UNSC resolution 1540, G8, have already been given. The answer is probably both political and technical, to allow the organisms in charge to recruit highly specialized experts and implement edge technique and to actually address the issue as the whole and to give the organism in charge the legal means, including addressing the missile proliferation, the reinforcement of the role of the Security Council, the creation of a new inspectorate. This document address technical and political aspects of the question.
展开▼