The Pharos Project:An Open-Source Approach to Assessing Nuclear Proliferation Threats

摘要

The Pharos Project consists of a system by which analysts can exploit open source intelligencern(OSINT) sources more efficiently in order to assess potential nuclear threats. The Pharos Projectrnestablishes the following series of eight indicators: Resources, Uranium Enrichment Capability,rnPersonnel, Military Infrastructure, Industrial Capacity, Past Nuclear Experience, EconomicrnIndicators, and Ties. These indicators provide analysts with a detailed picture of a country’s nuclearrnintentions and capabilities substantiated by the available body of OSINT information. The systemrnorganized in the Pharos Project concentrates on proliferation risks rather than known nuclearrnweapons powers and is particularly useful in recognizing emerging nuclear threats, as rudimentaryrnnuclear efforts are less likely subject to the intense secrecy that often surrounds more advancedrnefforts to develop nuclear weapons. The Pharos Project also allows analysts to concentrate on theirrnindividual areas of academic expertise, especially geographic, but even topically within the issuesrnrelated to proliferation. Because of its wide applicability, the Pharos Project is also useful inrnassessing nuclear ties and technology transfers between various countries and/or organizations. Thernmain strength of the Pharos Project is in its functionality in helping analysts engaged in preventingrnthe spread of nuclear weapons. The Pharos Project provides practical solutions designed to helprnprofessionals more fully use OSINT in accomplishing their non-proliferation mission.