OPERATION OPTIMIZATION METHOD FOR FACTORY POWER GENERATION PLANT CONSIDERING PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

摘要

Factory power generation plants supply electric powerrnand heat to the manufacturing lines. Because the demandrnchanges are uncertain, the power plant must adjust itsrnoutput to match the demands and to avoid the violation ofrnconstraints such as the inverse load flow. Conventionally,rnthese violations have been avoided by purchasing surplusrnelectric power. However, the surplus power raises thernenergy cost. There exists an optimization method, whichrnconsiders the uncertainty in the demands for cogenerationrnsystems, and implements a triangle function tornapproximate its probability distribution. However, thisrnmethod does not consider the tail of the probabilityrndistribution. In this paper, an operation optimizationrnmethod considering an uncertainty in the demands forrnfactory power plants is proposed. The proposed methodrnaims to avoid violations of constraints and to reduce thernenergy cost. Through simulation experiments, the validityrnof the proposed method is confirmed.